Inter-reviewer reliability of human literature reviewing and implications for the introduction of machine-assisted systematic reviews: a mixed-methods review.

OBJECTIVES: Our main objective is to assess the inter-reviewer reliability (IRR) reported in published systematic literature reviews (SLRs). Our secondary objective is to determine the expected IRR by authors of SLRs for both human and machine-assisted reviews. METHODS: We performed a review of SLRs of randomised controlled trials using the PubMed and Embase databases. Data were extracted on IRR by means of Cohen's kappa score of abstract/title screening, full-text screening and data extraction in combination with review team size, items screened and the quality of the review was assessed with the A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2. In addition, we performed a survey of authors of SLRs on their expectations of machine learning automation and human performed IRR in SLRs. RESULTS: After removal of duplicates, 836 articles were screened for abstract, and 413 were screened full text. In total, 45 eligible articles were included. The average Cohen's kappa score reported was 0.82 (SD=0.11, n=12) for abstract screening, 0.77 (SD=0.18, n=14) for full-text screening, 0.86 (SD=0.07, n=15) for the whole screening process and 0.88 (SD=0.08, n=16) for data extraction. No association was observed between the IRR reported and review team size, items screened and quality of the SLR. The survey (n=37) showed overlapping expected Cohen's kappa values ranging between approximately 0.6-0.9 for either human or machine learning-assisted SLRs. No trend was observed between reviewer experience and expected IRR. Authors expect a higher-than-average IRR for machine learning-assisted SLR compared with human based SLR in both screening and data extraction. CONCLUSION: Currently, it is not common to report on IRR in the scientific literature for either human and machine learning-assisted SLRs. This mixed-methods review gives first guidance on the human IRR benchmark, which could be used as a minimal threshold for IRR in machine learning-assisted SLRs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023386706.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent and nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccines in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women of the reproductive age group. Since 2018, the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (4vHPV) vaccine targeting four HPV types (6/11/16/18) has been introduced in the national immunization program in Ethiopia. Currently, however, a nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine which provides broader protection against nine HPV types (6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) is available for global use. Our study, therefore, aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 9vHPV vaccine compared to the current HPV vaccination program in Ethiopia. METHOD: A static Markov cohort model was used to simulate the progression of HPV infection to cervical cancer for a cohort of 12-years-old girls (N = 100,000) in Ethiopia. The model ran up to the age of 100 years, with a cycle length of 1 year. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore the robustness of the model and uncertainties around the parameters included in the model. Cost-effectiveness thresholds of one and three times gross domestic product (GDP) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained were considered. RESULTS: At a price of US$ 6.9, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained for the 9vHPV vaccine was US$ 454 compared to the 4vHPV vaccine, which is less than one times GDP per capita of Ethiopia. The ICER was most sensitive to the change in the discount rate of QALYs. Compared to 4vHPV vaccine, for 9vHPV vaccine to remain very cost-effective and cost-effective, its price per dose should not exceed US$ 8.4 and US$ 15, respectively, at a threshold of one and three times GDP per capita. CONCLUSION: Compared to the 4vHPV vaccine, the 9vHPV vaccine is a cost-effective option in Ethiopia, given that its price per dose does not exceed US$15.

Persistent Socioeconomic Inequalities in Measles Vaccine Uptake in Ethiopia in the Period 2005 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to quantify socioeconomic inequalities-and the factors contributing to these inequalities-in measles vaccine uptake among children aged 12 to 23 months in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016. METHODS: Inequalities in measles vaccine uptake were investigated based on data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2005, 2011, and 2016. Concentration curves and concentration indices were used to measure the degree of inequality, and decomposition analysis was used to identify factors contributing to these inequalities. RESULTS: The overall level of national measles vaccine uptake in Ethiopia exhibited an increasing trend between 2005 and 2016. As indicated by the concentration index of measles vaccine uptake, however, which was estimated at 0.202 (P < .01) in 2005, 0.226 (P < .01) in 2011, and 0.223 (P < .01) in 2016, measles vaccine uptake became consistently more concentrated among children from more affluent households. The dominance test of the concentration curve further confirmed the persistence of inequalities in measles vaccine uptake over time. Various factors-including maternal educational level, antenatal care use, institutional delivery, and exposure to media-were identified as the most important contributors to the inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: Although the national measles vaccine uptake showed improvement between 2005 and 2016, socioeconomic inequalities in the uptake persisted over time. Efforts to improve the national immunization coverage should be accompanied by appropriate measures to address the inequalities.

Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants Delayed and Limited within the National Immunization Programme in the Netherlands: An Opportunity Lost.

In this study, we estimated the benefits of rotavirus vaccination for infants had the rotavirus vaccine been introduced in the Netherlands as of its market authorization in 2006. An age-structured, deterministic cohort model was developed to simulate different birth cohorts over a period of 15 years from 2006 until 2021, comparing both universal and targeted high-risk group vaccination to no vaccination. Different scenarios for the duration of protection (5 or 7 years) and herd immunity (only for universal vaccination) were analyzed. All birth cohorts together included 2.6 million infants, of which 7.9% were high-risk individuals, and an additional 13.2 million children between 1-15 years born prior to the first cohort in 2006. The costs and health outcomes associated with rotavirus vaccination were calculated per model scenario and discounted at 4% and 1.5%, respectively. Our analysis reveals that, had rotavirus vaccination been implemented in 2006, it would have prevented 356,800 (51% decrease) and 32,200 (5% decrease) cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis after universal and targeted vaccination, respectively. Over the last 15 years, this would have led to significant avoided costs and quality-adjusted life year losses for either vaccination strategy with the most favorable outcomes for universal vaccination. Clearly, an opportunity has been lost.

Understanding the Improvement in Full Childhood Vaccination Coverage in Ethiopia Using Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition Analysis.

In Ethiopia, full vaccination coverage among children aged 12-23 months has improved in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate drivers of the improvement in the vaccination coverage. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique was applied to identify the drivers using data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2000 and 2016. The vaccination coverage rose from 14.3% in 2000 to 38.5% in 2016. The decomposition analysis showed that most of the rise in vaccination coverage (73.7%) resulted from the change in the effect of explanatory variables over time and other unmeasured characteristics. Muslim religion had a counteracting effect on the observed increase in vaccination coverage. The remaining 26.3% of the increase was attributed to the change in the composition of the explanatory variables between 2000 and 2016, with maternal educational level and maternal health care utilization as significant contributors. The findings highlight the need for further improvements in maternal health care utilization and educational status to maintain the momentum towards universal coverage of childhood vaccination. Targeted intervention among Muslim-dominated communities is also needed to improve the current situation. Besides which, future studies need to be conducted to identify additional potential modifiable factors.

Inequalities in Rotavirus Vaccine Uptake in Ethiopia: A Decomposition Analysis.

A previous study in Ethiopia reported significant variation in rotavirus vaccine uptake across socioeconomic strata. This study aims to quantify socioeconomic inequality of rotavirus vaccine uptake in Ethiopia and to identify the contributing factors for the inequality. The concentration curve (CC) and the Erreygers Normalized Concentration Index (ECI) were used to assess the socioeconomic related inequality in rotavirus vaccine uptake using data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Decomposition analysis was conducted to identify the drivers of inequalities. The CC for rotavirus vaccine uptake lay below the line of equality and the ECI was 0.270 (p < 0.001) indicating that uptake of rotavirus vaccine in Ethiopia was significantly concentrated among children from families with better socioeconomic status. The decomposition analysis showed that underlining inequalities in maternal health care services utilization, including antenatal care use (18.4%) and institutional delivery (8.1%), exposure to media (12.8%), and maternal educational level (9.7%) were responsible for the majority of observed inequalities in the uptake of rotavirus vaccine. The findings suggested that there is significant socioeconomic inequality in rotavirus vaccine uptake in Ethiopia. Multi-sectoral actions are required to reduce the inequalities, inclusive increasing maternal health care services, and educational attainments among economically disadvantaged mothers.

Factors associated with the uptake of newly introduced childhood vaccinations in Ethiopia: the cases of rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Childhood immunization programmes have made substantial contributions to lowering the burden of disease among children in developing countries, however a large proportion of children still remain unimmunized. This study aimed to explore the determinants of rotavirus vaccine (RVV) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) uptake in Ethiopia. METHODS: The 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey dataset was used in this analysis. A total of 2004 children aged 12-23 months were included in the analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to identify the determinants of uptake of the complete schedules of RVV (two doses) and PCV (three doses). Crude and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: The uptakes of the complete schedules of RVV and PCV among children aged 12-23 months were 56 and 49.1%, respectively. The likelihood of immunization with the complete schedule of RVV was significantly lower among children from the relatively poor Afar region in Ethiopia (AOR 0.16; 95%-CI 0.04-0.61). Similarly, children living in not only the Afar region (AOR 0.10; 95%-CI 0.03-0.38), but also the Gambela region (AOR 0.25; 95%-CI 0.08-0.83), were less likely to be vaccinated with PCV. On the other hand, children from more wealthy households had higher odds of vaccination with RVV (AOR 1.69; 95%-CI 1.04-2.75). Also attending antenatal care (ANC) was found to be significantly associated with uptake of the complete schedule of RVV and PCV. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of RVV and PCV is suboptimal in Ethiopia. The uptake of the vaccines were found to be associated with region, ANC use and wealth status.

Availability and affordability of priority life-saving medicines for under-five children in health facilities of Tigray region, northern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, child health outcomes are influenced by the non-availability of priority life-saving medicines at public sector health facilities and non-affordability of medicines at private medicine outlets. This study aimed to assess availability, price components and affordability of priority life-saving medicines for under-five children in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Tigray region from December 2015 to July 2016 using a standard method developed by the World Health Organization and Health Action International (WHO/HAI). Data on the availability and price of 27 priority life-saving medicines were collected from 31 public and 10 private sectors. Availability and prices were expressed in percent and median price ratios (MPRs), respectively. Affordability was reported in terms of the daily wage of the lowest-paid unskilled government worker. RESULTS: The overall availability of priority life-saving drugs in this study was low (34.1%). The average availabilities of all surveyed medicines in public and private sectors were 41.9 and 31.5%, respectively. The overall availability of medicines for malaria was found to be poor with average values of 29.3% for artemisinin combination therapy tablet, 19.5% for artesunate injection and 0% for rectal artesunate. Whereas, the availability of oral rehydration salt (ORS) and zinc sulphate dispersible tablets for the treatment of diarrhea was moderately high (90% for ORS and 82% for zinc sulphate). Medicines for pneumonia showed an overall percent availability in the range of 0% (ampicillin 250 mg and 1 g powder for injection and oxygen medicinal gas) to 100% (amoxicillin 500 mg capsule). The MPRs of 12 lowest price generic medicines were 1.5 and 2.7 times higher than the international reference prices (IRPs) for the private and public sectors, respectively. About 30% of priority life-saving medicines in the public sector and 50% of them in the private sector demanded above a single daily wages to purchase the standard treatment of the prevalent diseases of children. CONCLUSIONS: The lower availability, high price and low affordability of lowest price generic priority life-saving medicines in public and private sectors reflect a failure to implement the health policy on priority life-saving medicines in the region.

Cost Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Men Who have Sex with Men; Reviewing the Available Evidence.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men require special attention for human papillomavirus vaccination given elevated infection risks and the development of, in particular, anal cancer. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to review the cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination for both currently vaccine-eligible and non-eligible individuals, particularly the men-who-have-sex-with-men population, and synthesize the available evidence. METHODS: We systematically searched for published articles in two main databases (PubMed and EMBASE). Screening and data extraction were performed by two independent reviewers. The risk of bias was assessed using a validated instrument (Bias in Economic Evaluation, ECOBIAS). Methodological aspects, study results, and sensitivity analyses were extracted and synthesized to generate a consistent overview of the cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in the men-who-have-sex-with-men population. RESULTS: From 770 identified articles, four met the inclusion criteria. Across the studies, human papillomavirus vaccination showed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from dominant to US$96,146 and US$14,000 to US$18,200 for tertiary prevention and primary prevention, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio seemed most sensitive to vaccine efficacy, vaccine costs, and the incidence of anal cancer in the selected target populations. CONCLUSION: This review presents the human papillomavirus vaccine, both as a primary and adjuvant (tertiary) vaccination, as a potentially cost-effective strategy for preventing mainly-but not limited to only-anal cancer in men-who-have-sex-with-men populations.

Prescription drug use during pregnancy in Southern Tigray region, North Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Judicious utilization of drugs rescues the fetus from the harmful effects while treating the health problems of the pregnant women. This study aimed at evaluating drug utilization pattern and its associated factors among pregnant women in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia. METHOD: Institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among 647 pregnant women who had been attending obstetrics-gynecology and antenatal care units in different health facilities of Southern Tigray region. The study participants were selected using multistage sampling technique. Data collection was done using pre-tested semi-structured questionnaires and by reviewing antenatal follow-up cards. Descriptive and inferential statistics were analyzed, to assess drug utilization pattern and its associated factors among pregnant women, using SPSS version 20 software. RESULTS: Of 647 pregnant women, 87.5% were prescribed with at least one medication. As per the United States Food and Drug Administration (US-FDA) risk classification system, 87.7, 7.9, 3.9, and 0.5% of the prescribed drug were from category A, B, C and D, respectively. Prescription drug use was more likely among gynecology ward visitors [AOR = 8.97, 95% Cl (2.69-29.88)] and among those who visited health facilities for the first time during their first [AOR =2.65, 95% Cl (1.44-4.84)] and second [AOR = 2.50, 95% Cl (1.36-4.61)] trimesters. CONCLUSION: Majority of the study population used safe and appropriate medications according to US-FDA risk classification system, with the exception of low proportion (0.5%) of medication with potential risk for the fetus. The average number of drug prescribed per pregnant women was in the recommended range of WHO drug use indicators guideline.

Late presentation for diagnosis of HIV infection among HIV positive patients in South Tigray Zone, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In spite of the availability and accessibility of HIV testing opportunities and efforts, people are being late to test in the course of HIV infection. Late diagnosis leads to late anti-retroviral therapy initiation which in turn results in poor treatment outcome and prognosis of the disease. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and predictors of late HIV diagnosis among HIV-infected patients in South Tigray Zone, Ethiopia. METHODS: A facility based cross sectional study was conducted among HIV positive patients from February 1-30, 2014 in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia. Multistage sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. Data were collected by reviewing patient medical card and interviewing using structured questionnaire. Data were entered using Epi-Data version 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were modeled to evaluate the association of predictors with late diagnosis of HIV infection. RESULTS: Out of 789 study participants, 68.8 % of them were late for HIV diagnosis. Feeling healthy (65.7 %), fear of stigma and discrimination (32.4 %) and using traditional treatment (1.5 %) were reported as the main reasons for late HIV diagnosis. Use of Khat [AOR = 3.27, 95 % CI (1.75, 6.13)], bed ridden functional status [AOR = 2.66, 95 % CI (1.60, 4.42)], ambulatory functional status [AOR = 1.56, 95 % CI (1.03, 2.35)] and Muslim religion [AOR = 2.26, 95 % CI (1.13, 4.49)] were significantly associated with late presentation for HIV diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: High prevalence of late HIV diagnosis was recorded in Southern Tigray Zone, Ethiopia. Public health educations and campaigns targeted at improving early diagnosis and prognosis of people living with HIV/AIDS in Southern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia should be underway.

Drug Use during Acute Illness in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia: A Household Study.

BACKGROUND: Drug use study in the community enables health authorities to understand pattern of drug utilization and its related aspects. This, in turn, can help to develop rational drug policies to be harmonized in accordance to the need of the community. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess drug use during acute illness by the general population in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia. METHOD: A community based cross-sectional study was undertaken in April 2013 in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. A total of 1034 households were interviewed in the study. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select households. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: Out of 1000 households, 210(21%) reported an episode of acute illness. The prevalence of acute illnesses in rural areas 126(25%) (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.21-2.76) was significantly higher than that of urban areas 84(17%). Cough, runny nose, sore throat, earache, fever and headache added up to 155(52%) of all reported symptoms of acute illnesses. The majority of the patients 162 (77%) took modern medications for the managements of their diseases. Half 105(50%) of the consumed medications were antibiotics. The large proportions 173(83%) of medicines for acute illness were taken orally. The greater proportions 150(93%) of medications were prescribed by health professionals. Thirty-four households (21%) reported treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of acute illnesses in this study was found to be 21%. Acute illnesses were more common in rural areas than urban areas. Antibiotics were the most frequently used drugs for acute illnesses.

Household Storage of Medicines and Associated Factors in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: The presence of medicines in households is a risk factor for irrational drug use. This study aimed at investigating the prevalence and factors associated with home storage of medicines in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. METHOD: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in April 2013 in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. A total of 1034 participants were enrolled in the study. A multi-stage sampling method was employed to select households. Data were collected with the help of a pre-tested structured questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULT: Of the total households visited, 293(29%) stored drugs. The mean number of drugs per household was 1.73. The most common classes of drugs found in households were analgesics 149(29%) and antibiotics 128(25%). Most of the medicines kept in households were used for ongoing treatments 316(62%) and available in tablet dosage form (70%). More than half of the medications kept at homes were not adequately labeled while drawer 180(36%) were reported as the main place of drug storage. The proportion of home storage of medicines in rural area (AOR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.39-0.81) was lower than that of urban area. However, households having family member(s) working in health facilities (AOR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.09-3.77) were associated with an increased home storage of medicines. CONCLUSION: Most drugs kept at home were not appropriately labeled and stored in a safe place. Residence area (rural versus urban) and the presence of health professional(s) in the households affects household drug storage. Hence, public education campaign should be considered as an intervention to improve the storage condition of medicines in the households.